Pre-tourney Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.3#2
Expected Predictive Rating+19.3#3
Pace67.5#242
Improvement+2.8#69

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#2
First Shot+10.2#3
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#30
Layup/Dunks+2.7#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#92
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#19
Freethrows+0.0#169
Improvement+2.1#80

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#19
First Shot+6.0#29
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#27
Layups/Dunks+3.1#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#17
Freethrows+0.1#164
Improvement+0.7#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 23.5% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 79.1% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 2.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round96.6% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen77.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight53.3% n/a n/a
Final Four33.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game19.7% n/a n/a
National Champion11.5% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 301   Florida Atlantic W 82-55 99%     1 - 0 +14.9 +3.3 +11.0
  Nov 17, 2015 1   Kansas W 79-73 46%     2 - 0 +27.3 +10.3 +16.5
  Nov 20, 2015 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-46 99.7%    3 - 0 +28.2 +21.3 +10.3
  Nov 23, 2015 159   Eastern Michigan W 89-65 97%     4 - 0 +21.4 +9.4 +10.8
  Nov 26, 2015 206   Boston College W 99-68 97%     5 - 0 +28.1 +32.2 -3.1
  Nov 27, 2015 94   Boise St. W 77-67 90%     6 - 0 +15.9 +8.2 +7.8
  Nov 29, 2015 51   Providence W 77-64 83%     7 - 0 +23.0 +13.3 +10.1
  Dec 02, 2015 11   Louisville W 71-67 73%     8 - 0 +18.0 +10.7 +7.5
  Dec 05, 2015 317   Binghamton W 76-33 99.5%    9 - 0 +29.3 +3.1 +26.6
  Dec 09, 2015 319   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-35 99.5%    10 - 0 +29.2 +0.3 +30.5
  Dec 12, 2015 37   Florida W 58-52 86%     11 - 0 +14.7 -0.1 +15.6
  Dec 19, 2015 127   @ Northeastern W 78-58 91%     12 - 0 +25.4 +7.7 +17.9
  Dec 22, 2015 88   Oakland W 99-93 OT 90%     13 - 0 +12.4 +6.8 +4.5
  Dec 29, 2015 21   @ Iowa L 70-83 60%     13 - 1 0 - 1 +4.8 +2.5 +2.9
  Jan 02, 2016 176   @ Minnesota W 69-61 94%     14 - 1 1 - 1 +10.1 +7.6 +3.5
  Jan 07, 2016 109   Illinois W 79-54 95%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +26.0 +8.3 +18.4
  Jan 10, 2016 120   @ Penn St. W 92-65 90%     16 - 1 3 - 1 +32.9 +21.2 +10.8
  Jan 14, 2016 21   Iowa L 59-76 79%     16 - 2 3 - 2 -5.0 -8.4 +3.3
  Jan 17, 2016 33   @ Wisconsin L 76-77 70%     16 - 3 3 - 3 +13.8 +20.4 -6.7
  Jan 20, 2016 79   Nebraska L 71-72 93%     16 - 4 3 - 4 +3.1 +3.3 -0.3
  Jan 23, 2016 22   Maryland W 74-65 79%     17 - 4 4 - 4 +20.9 +9.8 +11.5
  Jan 28, 2016 65   @ Northwestern W 76-45 81%     18 - 4 5 - 4 +42.2 +13.0 +31.1
  Jan 31, 2016 271   Rutgers W 96-62 99%     19 - 4 6 - 4 +24.1 +14.4 +7.7
  Feb 06, 2016 42   @ Michigan W 89-73 74%     20 - 4 7 - 4 +29.7 +22.3 +7.7
  Feb 09, 2016 9   @ Purdue L 81-82 OT 51%     20 - 5 7 - 5 +19.0 +11.6 +7.4
  Feb 14, 2016 13   Indiana W 88-69 75%     21 - 5 8 - 5 +32.2 +18.7 +13.6
  Feb 18, 2016 33   Wisconsin W 69-57 85%     22 - 5 9 - 5 +21.0 +10.6 +11.9
  Feb 23, 2016 69   @ Ohio St. W 81-62 81%     23 - 5 10 - 5 +30.0 +27.3 +5.4
  Feb 28, 2016 120   Penn St. W 88-57 96%     24 - 5 11 - 5 +31.1 +17.3 +13.8
  Mar 02, 2016 271   @ Rutgers W 97-66 98%     25 - 5 12 - 5 +26.9 +19.3 +6.2
  Mar 05, 2016 69   Ohio St. W 91-76 91%     26 - 5 13 - 5 +20.2 +21.7 -1.7
  Mar 11, 2016 69   Ohio St. W 81-54 87%     27 - 5 +35.1 +18.5 +18.1
  Mar 12, 2016 22   Maryland W 64-61 70%     28 - 5 +17.8 +7.5 +10.7
  Mar 13, 2016 9   Purdue W 66-62 62%     29 - 5 +21.0 +8.1 +13.3
Projected Record 29.0 - 5.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.0 23.5 55.6 20.6 0.3
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2.0 23.5 55.6 20.6 0.3